Tuesday 20 December 2011

My first rather random blether.

I must confess to having considered beginning some kind of a blog for over three years and having installed and uninstalled the over-complicated Wordpress on several occasions only to give up in frustration at my inability to set the darned thing up!

Well done then to Google for this blogger thingy which seems user friendly and simple. My problems with Wordpress were confined to setting up the hosting facility which never seemed to work and yet my first serious (and successful) forays into website building date back to 1996 when there was no WYSIWYG and everything was coded in straight HTML so I am not a complete fool - presumably just half a fool! So, please, have a seat in the leather chair, turn on some music of your choice and see what you think. Whatever the outcome, please be gentle with me as I'm just starting!

Anyway, down to business. I would love to say that this blog will be updated as often as others you might be kind enough to visit but, quite simply, time is the perpetual enemy and so I can only promise to update it as and when I can manage to fit in the minutes and effort. Please bear with me and tolerate my laziness! I will let my Twitter friends know if and when it gets updated in the hope that some might be mad enough to pay it a little visit!

As I pen (type) my first fledgling effort, we find ourselves near the end of 2011 which has been a momentous year, certainly when it comes to Scottish politics. A very good friend of mine, who shall remain nameless but who is a keen and active supporter of The Scottish National Party, was telling me as recently as March of this year that "Labour were a shoe-in and that damage limitation was the name of the game". I'll be perfectly frank and state that this was, probably, my assessment as well. The rest is, as they say, history.

We near the new year with an incredible SNP majority at Holyrood and despite all the difficulties we face I feel strangely content, settled and at ease. I will explain why after I digress into some random notes and jottings - as another good friend might say.

What are the prospects for 2012?

Economically, the UK is in a dreadful mess with a burgeoning debt, a continuing and, it appears, growing deficit and no coherent strategy for recovery other than kidding us on that it is not our fault but that of those nasty people in Europe and, more specifically, the Eurozone. We continue to quantitatively ease (politician and banker-speak for printing money, causing inflation and weakening our currency but, hey, no-one will find out) and breathe sighs of relief that we were "wise enough" not to have joined the Euro when it was introduced. (Permit me to digress somewhat for the next two paragraphs before returning more to message - it is a rant, after all!)

Except that when Euro notes and coins began to be used in January, 2002., one GB Pound was worth €1.6225 (average for Jan 02) and today, after recent gains against the Euro, it is worth €1.1898 which relates to roughly three quarters of its value. Effectively, therefore, every time a politician or a BBC Economics "expert" tells you how lucky we are not to have joined the Euro bear in mind that every pound in your pocket is actually only 75p. At the time the Euro was introduced I, and I suspect most Scots, would quite happily have signed up to it whereas I accept that the majority in England would not have. I never was and still am not convinced that this English opposition was based on anything other that Euroscepticism. I do accept that today Scots would, more than likely, vote to stay out were a referendum to be held but, given the decrease in the relative value of the pound, that would probably be the right decision as things stand but would, arguably, be a vote based on misinformation.

Who, in my opinion of course, actually gained from the UK rejecting the use of the Euro apart from those in the Conservative Party who dislike everything Europe? As Cilla might say, "Surprise, Surprise!" it was none other than the banks and other financial "institutions", the darlings of Darling, the cuddly critters of Cameron. When you, kind reader, go to Spain this summer (if you are lucky) don't forget to take a significantly lower exchange rate than the one I quote above, don't forget to fall for the joke "no commission" sign (you simply get less money) and don't forget to change back whatever notes you might have left on your return at an even more ludicrous exchange rate. All of the difference? A further donation from your good self to Mr Bank. Being a rather cynical soul, I always thought that it was to protect the profits of our banking friends that we remained outside the Euro. Nothing has ever happened to dispel that thought. (As an aside, I feel I tend towards the Jim Sillars view of a separate Scottish currency come Independence although that would introduce the "change money at the border" jibes from Moore and his ilk.) Rant over, back to my original point - digression is a terrible thing.

As things stand, the Scottish Government must survive on pocket money and, despite Labour calling for this or that to be spent or increased, are only able to spend whatever that nice Mr Osborne agrees to send up the road. Cuts are, undoubtedly, going to bite and difficult and unpopular decisions will require to be taken but still I feel strangely content.

My job feels more and more insecure, even though it might not be, and there appear to be few vacancies around should I need to find another one. Inflation is considered high (see the money printing bit) but, in reality, this is because most wages are static (or decreasing through reductions in overtime) and all around the pressures are building. It appears to me that a second recession is both imminent and seemingly unavoidable and that George simply doesn't have a plan B or, if he does, refuses to lose face and implement it and yet, still, I feel strangely content.

It seems to me that the world is being run by "the markets" without anyone being able to really explain why. Why, for instance, MUST a company like Tesco's profits and turnover rise by more than inflation each year? Does there never come a point when a large company can truthfully say that "we have done as well as last year which was excellent and we are very happy. We feel we are making an appropriate profit this year and see no need to increase it. Do you know what? We are happy with the size we have reached and see no reason to grow any further. We have done it, here's your dividend, it will be the same next year!"?

Biggest unanswered questions of them all? Where has all the money actually gone, who has it? Did it ever exist? Why does a bank require an investment arm? Would the world be a better or worse place if all investment banks were immediately shut down?

Yet inexplicably and despite all the above and much, much more, I feel relatively content within myself. Why?

Quite honestly, I can only put it down to the following thought and attitude. For the first time in my life, I can look at a Government and say: "Do you know what? I might not like everything that you do, I might not agree with everything you propose or say BUT I know and can believe that whatever you do is being done with the best interests of the people of my country, Scotland, and with the betterment of my country, Scotland, as a whole, at heart. I have never been able to say that of politicians from the Labour, Conservative or Liberal Democrat parties. That might be my problem, although I think I know that it is, actually, theirs but that, in a nutshell, is the difference. I can look at my elected Government and trust that they genuinely are trying to do what is best for my country. They might or might not manage it but I KNOW WITHOUT EVEN A SHADOW OF A DOUBT that they are trying.

This Hogmanay I shall, therefore, raise my glass and propose a toast to everyone involved with the SNP from the First Minister down to thank them for what they have achieved and for what I hope they will achieve in the second half of the term of this Parliament.

Rant over, please have a very Happy Christmas and a very Happy and Prosperous New Year. We live in exciting times and I feel strangely settled. Oh, and ignore the posted at time stated below - I am, sadly, in the Borders for Christmas and not California!

Have a good one and thanks for visiting.
:-)